Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57595699
Sunday, June 27, 2021
British and Irish Lions v Japan: Zander Fagerson replaced by Tadhg Furlong
Zander Fagerson becomes the second Scotland player to pull out of the British and Irish Lions side to face Japan at Murrayfield on Saturday.
Saturday, June 26, 2021
White to miss France series after injuring knee at training
Wallabies halfback Nic White is out of next month’s Test series against France, while fellow veterans Matt Toomua and James O’Connor are also battling injuries, potentially robbing the side of almost 150 Test caps.
White has returned home to Canberra after suffering a MCL injury at training during their Gold Coast camp, and Toomua is already there with his injury being checked by Rugby Australia’s chief medical officer, Warren McDonald.
Toomua is expected to rejoin the squad on Sunday with the Wallabies hopeful the playmaker will be available for the first Test on July 7.
O’Connor, who has carried the injury from Super Rugby Trans-Tasman, is being managed through training but the five-eighth is expected to play.
With White out, Queensland’s Tate McDermott is now set for his first Test start after two matches off the bench, while Brumbies No.9 Ryan Lonergan is likely to make his debut.
Waratahs halfback Jake Gordon is in camp but is also recovering from a MCL injury and remains an outside chance of being available.
White doesn’t require surgery and medical staff are hopeful he will be in the frame for the Bledisloe Cup with the first match on August 7 in Auckland.
It comes as Rugby Australia push ahead with plans to play the opening match of the three Test series against France at the SCG despite the COVID-19 outbreak in Sydney.
The 42-man French squad arrived in Sydney on Tuesday night and underwent COVID-19 tests on Wednesday.
Les Bleus will be quarantined in their hotel for the next fortnight though they will be allowed out to train ahead of the July 7 Test at the SCG.
The teams are playing a condensed series with three Tests in 11 days, the second at Melbourne’s AAMI Park on July 13 followed by the third at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on July 17.
The second Test looked to be in most doubt, with Melbourne in lockdown for two weeks after a rise COVID-19 cases, but that has eased with crowds welcomed back to sporting events this weekend.
There were questions about whether that game would be shifted to Canberra, which could now be an option for the Sydney match should the pandemic continue to worsen on the eastern seabelt.
Queensland and Victoria have closed their borders to NSW residents from hotspot areas in the eastern suburbs and central Sydney.
RA chief executive Andy Marinos said they remained hopeful the matches would be played as scheduled.
“Appreciating that we continue to operate in a dynamic environment with COVID-19 impacts, we are moving ahead with our plans to host these matches as planned, subject to any further
advice from our state government partners,” Marinos said in a statement.
“We are now just two weeks away from the start of the series which kicks off with the Wallabies’ first match at the historic Sydney Cricket Ground in 35 years.
“I want to thank (president) Bernard Laporte, (coach) Fabian Gautier and the FFR (French Rugby Federation) for their partnership in ensuring this series could go ahead.
“It has been a mammoth effort by all involved.”
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/24/white-to-miss-france-series-after-injuring-knee-at-training/
https://therugbystore.com.au/white-to-miss-france-series-after-injuring-knee-at-training/
British and Irish Lions v Japan: Justin Tipuric replaces Hamish Watson in line-up
Wales flanker Justin Tipuric comes into the British and Irish Lions side to play Japan on Saturday after Scotland's Hamish Watson is ruled out by a training-ground concussion.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57582450
British and Irish Lions: Eight debutants to face Japan
The British and Irish Lions will have eight debutants in their team to face Japan on Saturday.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57567198
https://therugbystore.com.au/british-and-irish-lions-eight-debutants-to-face-japan/
Friday, June 25, 2021
Why are we not excited about the naming of the All Blacks squad?
What used to be one of the most anticipated moments of my life has now evolved into a modicum of enthusiasm.
It may be because I am now a New Zealander living in Australia where the media attention for rugby is so much less than NZ, but I feel that the naming of the All Blacks squad is less of a big deal than previously.
And no, I have not become an AFL fan, I have tried hard to like it and know enough to fake a conversation, but still do not get the enthusiasm for it.
I remember the heated debates with mates and fellow workers as to who would make the team and there was always a “Pick the All Blacks” competition running somewhere.
If the team named by the public could ever take the field who knows what the result would be. I would say that several Kiwis could pick a better team than what Ian Foster and co have just done.
I believe I never ever managed to select the whole squad as named by selectors but did come close. There was always a bolter in there.
Bolters usually do not work, do they? The “experiments” usually did not develop as planned either.
So, to the All Blacks squad to start 2021, with Tests against Fiji and Tonga.
Forwards
Hookers
Asafo Aumua (24, Hurricanes / Wellington, 1)
Dane Coles (34, Hurricanes / Wellington, 74)
Codie Taylor (30, Crusaders / Canterbury, 56)
Props
George Bower (29, Crusaders / Otago, uncapped)
Ethan de Groot (22, Highlanders / Southland, new cap)
Nepo Laulala (29, Blues / Counties Manukau, 29)
Tyrel Lomax (25, Hurricanes / Tasman, 6)
Angus Ta’avao (31, Chiefs / Auckland, 14)
Karl Tu’inukuafe (28, Blues / North Harbour, 17)
Locks
Scott Barrett (27, Crusaders / Taranaki, 36)
Brodie Retallick (30, Chiefs / Hawke’s Bay, 81)
Patrick Tuipulotu (28, Blues / Auckland, 35)
Tupou Vaa’i (21, Chiefs / Taranaki, 4)
Samuel Whitelock (32, Crusaders / Canterbury, 122) – captain
Loose forwards
Ethan Blackadder (26, Crusaders / Tasman, new cap)
Shannon Frizell (27, Highlanders / Tasman, 13)
Akira Ioane (26, Blues / Auckland, 2)
Luke Jacobson (24, Chiefs / Waikato, 2)
Dalton Papalii (23, Blues / Counties Manukau, 4)
Ardie Savea (27, Hurricanes / Wellington, 49)
Hoskins Sotutu (22, Blues / Counties Manukau, 5)
Backs
Halfbacks
Finlay Christie (25, Blues / Tasman, new cap)
Aaron Smith (32, Highlanders / Manawatu, 97)
Brad Weber (30, Chiefs / Hawke’s Bay, 7)
First five–eighths
Beauden Barrett (30, Blues / Taranaki, 88)
Richie Mo’unga (27, Crusaders / Canterbury, 22)
Midfielders
Braydon Ennor (23, Crusaders / Canterbury, 1)
David Havili (26, Crusaders / Tasman, 3)
Rieko Ioane (24, Blues / Auckland, 33)
Anton Lienert-Brown (26, Chiefs / Waikato, 49)
Quinn Tupaea (22, Chiefs / Waikato, new cap)
Outside backs
Jordie Barrett (24, Hurricanes / Taranaki, 23)
George Bridge (26, Crusaders / Canterbury, 10)
Will Jordan (22, Crusaders / Tasman, 2)
Damian McKenzie (26, Chiefs / Waikato, 27)
Sevu Reece (23, Crusaders / Tasman, 8)
Living in Australia makes it difficult to get to know all the players and be familiar with their overall form. But I will do the best I can.
Overall, the response to the hookers named seems to be quite positive. Coles and Taylor are the veterans with the young blood snapping at their heels.
The murky depths of the prop world are left to the scrummaging experts, and you must take their word for it. I always liked the running prop myself. Ethan de Groot at 22 is extremely young to be named so we hope he lives up to the promise.
Five locks were named with one of them, Samuel Whitelock named as skipper, replacing Sam Kane. Scott Barrett joins his two brothers in the squad. I do not know a lot about Tupou Vaa’I, the young Chiefs lock, but maybe a reader is more familiar with him?
You know you are getting old when sons of players you followed years ago, are named in current teams! Ethan Blackadder, son of Todd has been named as a loose forward. As an aside, Michael Lynagh’s son Louis is now also becoming a prominent player.
The rest of the loose forwards are named on form with Shannon Frizell, brother of Tyson, a St George player in NRL, reclaiming his spot.
(Dianne Manson/Getty Images)
T.J Perenara was ineligible for this squad and his place goes to Finlay Christie, the Scottish born Blues halfback.
Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett are the first five-eighths selected with some questioning why a third five-eighth was not picked. Maybe they have Damian McKenzie in mind as well.
I do have question marks over Barrett and whether his glory days are behind him. I am sure that is what they said about Dan Carter too. Like a Benji Marshall or Shaun Johnston in the NRL, they just become different players.
The midfield backs are solid selections and hopefully a partnership is built up over this season in preparation for the next World Cup. The All Blacks have not had a settled midfield since Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu.
The durable partnership of Frank Bunce and Walter Little is a distant memory. Please do not ask me about Quinn Tupaea, the 22-year-old Chiefs player selected as I have no idea!
The outside backs named are Jordie Barrett, George Bridge, Will Jordan, Damian McKenzie and Sevu Reece. Barrett is a good player, but I am yet to be convinced by him for some reason.
Maybe it is the haircut or the way he runs, I do not know! George Bridge I worry about, he is getting to that age when wingers start to lose their place, and I thought he was shown up in the last World Cup. Maybe there is a better option?
Will Jordan has impressed me with the limited viewing I have seen of him, and he is at that age where he has it all in front of him. McKenzie is a fantastic player yet to cement his spot in the All Blacks. Is it full back or first five?
Time will tell. Sevu Reece is another yet to convince me of a long-term career in the All Blacks. We have been spoilt with great wingers over the years with Lomu, Bryan Williams, Kirwan, and the two Wilson’s as examples. So, a player like Reece has a lot to live up to.
Overall, a conservative team named, from a conservative coach. Is this the beginnings of a team that will take us through to the next World Cup?
The loose forwards, halfback, first-five, midfield, wing, and full back are concerns. I believe I just about included the whole team there! Time will tell.
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/22/why-are-we-not-excited-about-the-naming-of-the-all-blacks-squad/
https://therugbystore.com.au/why-are-we-not-excited-about-the-naming-of-the-all-blacks-squad/
South Africa and Argentina begin their game review
Any enigma about the physical preparation and the evolution of the Springboks’ game will be revealed when they face the British and Irish Lions.
Given the Springboks have not participated in any competitions since the end of 2019, and with most of their key players playing abroad, it is difficult to analyze the medium-term prospects that would deposit them at the gates of the Rugby Championship 2021.
In principle, one of the keys to dismantling the South African defensive game lies in avoiding or controlling the rapid pressure they exert through no’s. 6-8 and no. 9: fast and direct through the shortest channel until crashing into the opponent’s attack.
Physicality on the occasion of contact is the central axis of the South African strategy, with almost 98 per cent effectiveness in ruck and 85 per cent in positive tackles.
At the last Rugby World Cup in 2019, the Springboks left their qualifying group behind by playing good rugby but mostly focused on the potential to score points. But as they progressed towards the final stages of the tournament, their try power diminished until they faced England with an accumulated net difference of +13 tries in their favour.
So far a quick overview of the current world champion. But one thing will be certain: nothing that happens in the series with the Lions will determine the aspirations to impose their leadership and physical might in the rugby ecosystem of the southern hemisphere.
A similar situation occurs with Argentina, who dispersed their men in European professional rugby and, to a lesser extent, Australia. After a disappointing performance at the World Cup, the Pumas managed to shore up their game at the Tri-Nations in 2020, based on defensive strength (86.2 per cent on positive tackles) and relative control of the breakdown.
Finally their second position in the championship was ensured by the effectiveness of kicking the sticks but also showing notable advances in scrummaging (after hitting rock bottom in 2017) and lineout, where they presented, among others, the winning card of Guido Petti as the best jumper of Super Rugby in the last year of Jaguares.
Regarding the scrummaging technique called ´La Bajadita´, promoted by Argentina at the Tri-Nations, you can consult its current implications in contemporary rugby in this article by Nick Bishop.
What should we expect from Los Pumas in the next matches? Matches against Wales in July will give us approximate form of the Argentine team. But we can point out something that differentiates the Argentine team for some years and that could be healthy.
First, we see a strong correlation between granted turnovers and the dramatic change in status, where the ‘disorganised Latino’ temperament shows its achievements by incredibly disorganising the world’s tightest defences.
The other point that perhaps the Argentine team should enhance, in addition to other variations to the monolithic defence already presented, is obtaining more fluid access routes to the opponent’s territory to transform possession and territory into tries.
The kicking game could be an avenue. The conservative conduction of the phase game could be another. In the 2020 Tri-Nations, the opponent’s 22-metre penetrating effectiveness was 9.6 per cent compared to 10.5 per cent for Australia and 37.2 per cent for New Zealand.
So far, that’s my vision of things. Once the luminaire originating from the recent Super Rugby Trans-Tasman is extinguished, we will see what Australia and New Zealand haver in store for us.
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/23/south-africa-and-argentina-begin-their-game-review/
https://therugbystore.com.au/south-africa-and-argentina-begin-their-game-review/
Thursday, June 24, 2021
Tom Youngs: Leicester hooker accepts two-week ban for disrespecting match official
Tom Youngs accepts a charge of disrespecting a match official during Leicester's game with Bristol in June.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57554547
Manu Tuilagi: England coach Eddie Jones adds Sale centre to squad for July Tests
Manu Tuilagi is included in Eddie Jones' updated 36-player England squad for their summer Tests against the USA and Canada.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57547865
Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Get your questions in for Issue 18 of Coach’s Corner
The inaugural Super Rugby Trans-Tasman season is done and dusted, so we’re counting down the days until the international fixtures kick off in this week’s edition of Coach’s Corner.
Every Friday, our rugby analyst here on The Roar, Nick Bishop, answers your questions about the goings-on across the rugby world
Miss the latest issue of Coach’s Corner? Catch up right here!
With the first Test against France now just a fortnight away, all eyes turn to the Wallabies as they prepare to try and stun France at the SCG. The European powerhouse won’t be at full strength, thanks to results in the Top 14; Toulouse’s semi-final win meaning stars Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, among others, won’t make it through Australia’s overseas quarantine in time for the first Test at least.
Do the Aussies have a chance of getting the jump on Les Bleus? Or will their All Blacks-esque squad depth hold the visitors in good stead?
In other Wallabies news, captain Michael Hooper has issued a warning that overseas sabbaticals are the only way to move Australian rugby forward, given the continued struggle of the sport on home soil.
Is it time for Rugby Australia to move on from the old ways? Or is there a middle-ground solution to help get the code out of its funk?
Across the ditch, the other Blues broke an 18-year title drought to claim Super Rugby Trans-Tasman glory, with a hard-fought final win over the gutsy Highlanders. The 23-15 win, thanks to a late Ben Gibson try, breaks the Crusaders’ stranglehold on southern hemisphere rugby, and sparked scenes of joy at Eden Park.
Further north, the Harlequins pulled off one of the sport’s greatest comebacks in the English Premiership semi-final. They gave Bristol Bears a 28-0 half time lead before a blistering second stanza saw them win 43-36, seeing them through to the final against Exeter. And how could we forget Louis Lynagh, son of Wallabies great and captain Michael, flattening none other than the Fijian Flyer himself, Semi Radradra?
Got a question for Nick? Be sure to leave it in the comments section below, and come back later in the week to see his answers!
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/21/get-your-questions-in-for-issue-18-of-coachs-corner/
https://therugbystore.com.au/get-your-questions-in-for-issue-18-of-coachs-corner/
The 1995 decisions that took southern hemisphere rugby down the wrong path
This article is in response to the recent article by Brett McKay highlighting calls by various coaches and personalities to bring back the NRC.
Apart from the obvious fact Rugby Australia doesn’t have the money to reprise the NRC – or ARC, for that matter – I’ve always disputed its legitimacy on the grounds it duplicated unnecessary resources.
Southern hemisphere rugby, including Australian rugby, took a wrong turn back in 1995. Everything they’ve done since has created extra expenses, required extra funds, which in turn meant seeking out extra, impractical revenue streams that were unnecessary.
How for example, is it a victory for South African Super Rugby teams to move offshore to Europe, to be soon followed presumedly by the Springboks?
Back in 1995 the southern hemisphere had a structural set-up that was close to perfect. What it required was fleshing out and building upon the solid footings and foundations already long established, not displacing them, as occurred when the game went professional in 1996.
New Zealand had its NPC divided into several divisions. South Africa likewise had its Currie Cup divided into several divisions. Even the staunchly amateur Argentina had a similar set-up, with its 16 provinces divided into two divisions.
Australia of course was the weak link. It had only two provinces of note: New South Wales Queensland. But there was room for future growth with long-established minor provinces such as ACT, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, NSW Country and Queensland Country.
Down the track NSW Country could have been embedded in Newcastle and created the new province of Eastern Australia. Similarly, Queensland Country could have been embedded in Townsville to create North Queensland. In the embryonic years of the game, before the union-league split of 1907, these two regions produced plenty of Wallabies.
When professionalism came, each of the southern hemisphere nations – New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina and Australia – should have been encouraged to form an eight-team national competition.
The three first-named nations could have done this relatively quickly, with Australia perhaps starting with six teams and building towards eight teams. The Super 10 of 1993-95 was effectively a Champions Cup and should have remained so. In 1996 it could have been expanded to 12 teams, three per nation, and contested after the respective national tournaments.
The season would have unfolded as follows: an eight-team competition of home-and-away games totalling 14 matches plus a final four. This would have meant a season of 14 to 16 matches per team.
The top three teams from each country would then contest the Super 12 – four pools of three teams. This would be quickly over with each team playing two to four matches. Meanwhile, the remaining teams in the various national competitions could conduct a knockout style tournament involving no more than four matches for the finalists.
Consequently each team in each country would play between 16 and 20 matches, which is plenty for a first-class-style season. Add a preseason of three to four matches and combine that with ten to 12 Tests per nation, and the season is pretty much full.
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Finally, the Rugby Championship was a great addition to the annual season.
I would have loved, for example, watching the Wallabies, All Blacks, Springboks and Pumas circa 1985 being guided around the park by their champion number-10s in Mark Ella (then Mike Lynagh), Wayne Smith (then Grant Fox), Naas Botha and Hugo Porta.
The various national competitions would have worked like the Sheffield Shield in its heyday, with established stars, young up-and-comers and still-performing veterans all in the same team, the experienced mentoring the newcomers and testing the same in the opposition.
In Australia the depth would have been initially weak, but as the national competition gained traction, hopefully this problem would have been rectified.
But sadly none of this happened. It is a little-known fact that in 1996 the working title for Super 12 was the IPC – International Provincial Championship. In other words, it was supposed to work exactly the same as the Super 10 of 1993-95.
The Kiwis were first to blink. Instead of staring down the minor provinces and stating that the top eight provinces should come from the eight biggest geographical regions, they rolled over and created five artificial franchises.
The Saffies held the line for several seasons, but by 1999 they also buckled and created four, then five and later six artificial franchises. However, unlike New Zealand, the South African franchises in most cases didn’t pretend to be very different from their major provinces.
(Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Australia of course didn’t have to worry about these trivialities. It quite proudly created – or rebranded – the ACT, giving it three provinces. But eventually it had another problem. While New Zealand and South Africa had their national tournaments to fall back on as a mid-tier competition, Australia had no such thing.
While once upon a time the Sydney Shute Shield and Brisbane Hospital Cup might have done the job of producing future Wallabies, the caravan had moved on since leading players were almost never seen in district club rugby. So those players plying their trade in these competitions were not getting the development they needed.
Consequently, the then Rugby AU introduced the ARC in 2007 and the NRC in 2014-19. Both competitionss have struggled with poorly conceptualised teams, financial blowouts and a lack of support. Duplication of resources hasn’t helped the financial bottom line.
Over at SANZAAR, things just went from crazy to crazier. While introducing an Argentine team was absolutely necessary to complement the Pumas, the introduction of a Japanese team was pie-in-the-sky stuff. Meanwhile, the Saffies failed to stare down their government and advise them clearly there was no place for a sixth franchise.
Super Rugby never really gained traction once the initial novelty wore off. Playing offshore is the job of national teams, not domestic provincial teams. Playing in South Africa in the middle of the night put the game out of sight, out of mind.
If you really want a national competition, what you want is a version of the NRL or AFL. Fans want to see their best homegrown teams with their best homegrown talent playing on home grounds at home-friendly times.
Andy Marinos, the former chief executive of SANZAAR, now finds himself leading Australian rugby. It’s beyond my comprehension that there were no suitable alternatives found – Marinos is quoted in McKay’s article as one of those lamenting the loss of the NRC.
But Marinos is just one in a very long line of administrators who have continually got it more wrong than right since 1996. Funny – the suits back then were warning us that professionalism would destroy the very ethos of rugby.
Yet many of those same suits couldn’t get their snouts in the money trough quickly enough. They eyed more broadcast money than they had ever seen before, and they completely lost their heads. Led by the pied pipers at News – who had their own, different agenda – they took the game down the wrong path.
And now, a quarter of a century later, southern hemisphere rugby is effectively stuffed.
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/20/the-1995-decisions-that-took-southern-hemisphere-rugby-down-the-wrong-path/
Premiership semi-final: Bristol Bears 36-43 Harlequins (AET) - Quins reach Twickenham after stunning fightback
Harlequins stage a thrilling fightback from 28-0 down to beat Bristol after extra time and reach the Premiership final.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57484199
Tuesday, June 22, 2021
British and Irish Lions 2021: Sam Warburton backs Warren Gatland to make history
Former British and Irish Lions captain Sam Warburton backs Warren Gatland to cement his legacy in South Africa.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57505885
Monday, June 21, 2021
Who gets to wear gold? Why Dave Rennie is right and Marika Koroibete must choose
It’s the question that just won’t go away: should Australian rugby’s overseas contingent be eligible to play for the Wallabies?
The argument fired up again this week with the announcement of the first Test squad for 2021. Feelings run hot on both sides. Those championing head coach Dave Rennie’s ‘local only’ approach fear a stampede for the exit if eligibility restrictions end.
On the other hand, after a run of less-than-stellar results over the past couple of decades, others believe the Wallabies simply can’t afford to exclude our overseas elite – particularly with players increasingly making the move abroad in their peak years.
Imagine what Rory Arnold, Tolu Latu and Sean McMahon would bring to the Wallabies, they argue. South Africa picked players from wherever and won a World Cup. Why can’t that be us?
Making a choice: Then and now
30 years ago, Wallabies fans lived in fear of the next headline announcing that this rugby star or that emerging talent had signed to play league. It was such a regular occurrence that supporters should have been resigned to it but, every time it happened, it was still a dagger to the heart. At one time, both Michael Lynagh and David Campese were in the sights of league scouts, and only an imminent rugby revolution saved Tim Horan from the dark side.
Would Australia have won the 1991 Rugby World Cup without Lynagh and Campese? No.
(Getty Images)
Or have brought back Bill in 1999 had Horan defected five years earlier? Almost certainly not.
It’s reasonable to assume that all three feel they made the right decision. None would enjoy quite the status they do today had they left rugby for league.
This, of course, was the amateur era, when rugby players played for love not money – at least in theory.
Now, professional players get to have their cake and eat it too. Those at the top can represent their country and get paid for it. Generations of amateurs must wish they’d been so lucky.
Of course, it’s not money for nothing. Professionalism demands as well as gives, in terms of training time, a demanding travel schedule, marketing and media commitments, not to mention public scrutiny. Still, for many of Australia’s professional rugby players (although not all), it’s a comfortable living.
David versus Goliath
The issue for Australia is that other countries are offering more than a comfortable living; they’re offering small fortunes. Even middle-tier players are often handsomely compensated, and those at the top of their game – such as Melbourne Rebels and Wallabies wing Marika Koroibete, who may be heading to Japan at season’s end – can double their Australian salary to make a million dollars or more a year.
Rennie has made it clear that Rugby Australia cannot compete with these kinds of salaries, but we already knew that. There was a similar tussle for then-Reds captain Samu Kerevi a couple of years ago, and that was before a pandemic exposed and worsened the parlous state of Australian rugby’s finances.
(Photo by Daniel Jayo/Getty Images)
Why on earth Rugby Australia should be expected to compete financially is a mystery. The Japanese Top League sides are the constructs of multinational corporations, such as Panasonic and Toyota. With corporate behemoths behind them, these teams don’t have to sustain themselves. Similarly, the French Top 14 sides and English Premiership teams are often the playthings of wealthy owners.
At the other end of the spectrum, Rugby Australia, and the Australian Super Rugby teams bar the Western Force, are scraping by on broadcast fees, sponsorship money and ticket/merchandise sales. This is David versus Goliath territory.
So why don’t we do as South Africa does and pick our players from anywhere?
Instead of Michael Hooper heading to Japan for five months, he could pack his bags for five years, along with the rest of our top earners, while returning for the approved Test windows. It’s surely an elegant solution that would save Rugby Australia millions each year without compromising the Wallabies.
Gazing into rugby’s crystal ball
The problem with that ‘solution’ is the impact on the quality of our Super Rugby teams with our top players overseas. The problem is the lack of senior players to mentor emerging ones. The problem is the Test coaches’ inability to keep tabs on fitness and form, and the impact on cohesion when the Wallabies come together. The problem is supporters drifting away when players they’ve followed through the pathways disappear. The problem is lost marketing opportunities and fewer sponsors.
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In short, the problem is the risk of catastrophic damage to our rugby culture.
The Waratahs’ 2021 season painted a stark picture of what a Super team looks like shorn of its top talent and middle tier, reliant largely on journeymen and a few plucky up-and-comers not quite experienced enough to demand the big bikkies overseas (but who will be gone next year or the year after once their stature and price has risen).
Imagine if all five of our Super Rugby teams had a similar composition (and similar results) to the Waratahs. Is that what we want, year after year, a constant merry-go-round of rebuilding, losing our best and brightest just as they approach their peak?
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
But onto the impact on Test rugby and, ultimately, Australia’s prospects at the Rugby World Cup.
A multitude of factors go into winning a World Cup. A handful of World XV players, a coaching group able to form a team that’s greater than the sum of its parts, personalities and playing styles gelling, timing and a little bit of luck are just a few.
But my guess is – and it is just a guess – that it would become much harder with our top players based offshore.
Wallabies coaches and medical staff would have little oversight. Players would be less familiar with each other, impacting cohesion. They’d be strangers to the public too, no longer inspiring the same goodwill they once enjoyed. These things matter.
South Africa did it, though
South Africa’s rules relaxed in 2017 to make overseas internationals with 30 Test caps eligible for the Springboks, before restrictions were dropped altogether just a few months before the 2019 Rugby World Cup. 60 per cent of its squad for the tournament was still based in South Africa, so it’s reasonable to theorise that cohesion was still strong.
But what will the impact of a big foreign legion be on the Springboks’ chances of defending their world crown in 2023 – or even on their prospects against the British and Irish Lions this year?
Perhaps, by 2023, all the top South African players will be clustered at Sale and Munster, and cohesion will be just fine. But if your 33-man squad comes from 28 different teams located in seven different countries, they may no longer be speaking the same rugby language. Is the limited time you have together enough to reconnect, or are you now at a distinct disadvantage?
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Perhaps more important, though, will be the impact on rugby’s place within South African culture. Will it lose its grip on the national psyche? Will the local game become simply a farm league for wealthy overseas juggernauts to plunder? Will kids still aspire to be Springboks?
We simply don’t know. The real effect of changes to eligibility may not be felt for a decade or more. Think of the decision back in 1995 to put Super Rugby on pay TV, and its impact on Australian rugby across a quarter of a century. By the time the true impact of ending eligibility restrictions is known, it may be too late to turn the tide.
Guardians of the game
Rugby is more fragile in Australia than it is in South Africa. Here, it’s a niche sport (albeit one known for punching above its weight) and has to compete with two behemoths in rugby league and AFL. Our unique challenges mean that Australian rugby’s guardians – from the administrators to the players to the fans – must nurture our code with great care.
This is why rugby administrators first moved to give the sport a national footprint. They knew that if they didn’t take the ground others would. As a result, rugby now spans the breadth of our country. It’s an extraordinary feat, one achieved at some cost, admittedly. It places big demands on playing resources while new pathways are established. The politics have been messy, the financial cost near disastrous.
Nevertheless, our youngest team, the Melbourne Rebels, is now ten years old, and the Western Force is 15. In Perth, the Sea of Blue – including cheerleader-in-chief Andrew Forrest – dug in and refused to let the Force die, even when things were at their toughest.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The Force’s rugby pipeline of homegrown talent has already produced a number of Test-standard players, and in Melbourne the ‘Burn Boys’ are showing the Victorian community what’s possible.
These signs of resilience are significant in Australian rugby’s battle to survive and thrive, but we can’t afford to drop the ball. We need all five Super teams to be strong in order to build awareness, participation and sustainability (not to mention competitiveness at the trans-Tasman level!), just as we need the Wallabies to be competitive, cohesive and strongly supported. This means the best Australian players staying home as much as possible during the peak years of their careers.
There’s some value in short-term overseas stints. Michael Hooper’s low-key sabbatical in Japan will surely have recharged those Energizer batteries, while Matt Philip’s recent French lessons may prove invaluable in the upcoming series against Les Bleus.
Rennie has flagged a place for these kinds of arrangements going forward, for players broadly committed to Australian rugby. Where there’s a benefit for player development, wellbeing and longevity, it’s a pragmatic move.
The ultimate prize
In general, though, Rennie is right to send a strong signal to three-storey Rory and co – indeed, to the entire rugby community – that Australian rugby puts a high value on loyalty. If you want to play for Australia, you must play in Australia.
(Andrew Phan/supplied by Rugby Australia)
Of course, when players are loyal and making a financial sacrifice to keep Australian rugby strong, Australian rugby must show loyalty in return. This means providing exciting competitions, world-class coaching and development opportunities, the best medical and welfare support and preparation for life after rugby, as well as the ultimate prize of Test eligibility.
Until Marika Koroibete shows his hand, we won’t know if what Australian rugby offers is enough to keep him here for less money than he’d earn overseas.
Will he want to build a legacy with the Rebels? How badly does he want to win Bledisloes and a World Cup? Does he consider himself part of the fabric of Australian rugby?
His often thrilling performances over the past two years in particular have already repaid Australian rugby’s investment in him. If he chooses to go, it should be with our well wishes.
But before he makes a decision on his future, he might want to speak with Samu Kerevi. In 2019, Samu left for Japan where his brothers were based – and for a financial deal beyond anything the Queensland rugby union and Rugby Australia could offer. It might have seemed a simple decision at the time, a contract that could set up his family for years, if not life.
But anyone who saw Kerevi’s grim expression as Australia raised the Puma trophy following his last game at Suncorp Stadium might have speculated on his feelings. Perhaps they were just end-of-an-era emotions. Or just maybe the true cost of his choice was sinking in.
Wearing Wallaby gold has meaning, more so when you’ve made a sacrifice to do so. Those players from the amateur era who resisted league’s lure were prepared to make that sacrifice. Today’s Wallabies must do likewise.
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/19/who-gets-to-wear-gold-why-dave-rennie-is-right-and-marika-koroibete-must-choose/
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Friday, June 18, 2021
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Five talking points from Super Rugby Trans-Tasman, Round 5
And then there were two – and perhaps not the two we all expected. The final round of the trans-Tasman competition has been and gone, and the suffering of Aussie fans can finally stop – well until the Bledisloe at least.
The results this weekend might have been expected – another clean sweep for the Kiwi sides – but there’s plenty to talk about, so let’s get stuck in.
Brad Thorn will be ropeable
You wouldn’t want to be around Brad Thorn much this weekend after Friday night’s game. Take your pick of reasons why. My best guess is that while he might want to rip the referee a new one for the two yellow card decisions – more on them later – it’ll be his own players that he’s most frustrated by.
Forty-eight missed tackles – 48! Just think this through for a second – the Hurricanes had only 41 per cent of the possession. The ball is in play for roughly 35 minutes out of the game. The Canes therefore had the ball in hand for 15 minutes in the whole game. In those 15 minutes the Reds missed a tackle at a rate of one every 20 seconds.
A Brad Thorn-coached side that misses a tackle every 20 seconds is in for a brutal conversation on Monday morning.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
How in the name of all that is good and pure was that a penalty try?
The Queensland players might be quite glad that their coach’s fury at them will be diluted thanks to some incredibly poor decisions from the referee.
The penalty try against Bryce Hegarty was absolutely bonkers. You can agree that the 28-year-old knocked the ball out of play deliberately, you can even agree that this behaviour deserved a yellow card, but you simply cannot be sure that Ngani Laumape was going to score.
It just doesn’t make sense. To award the penalty try the referee has to believe that if Hegarty had not committed the illegal act, then Laumape would have scored. But considering that the act was that Hegarty knocked the ball out deliberately, you are saying that the Reds player got to the ball and was able to touch it.
So if he got there, how can you say that Laumape would have scored? Surely you have to say that actually if Hegarty had chosen not to knock the ball out, then he still could have stopped Laumape from scoring and therefore no penalty try can be given.
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Will Rugby Australia feel the Force to changing their minds?
No Australian side has really covered themselves in glory over the past five weeks, but the Force should look at the trans-Tasman competition and take a lot from their progress. Just like in the Australian competition, they finished behind the Reds and Brumbies but ahead of the Rebels and the Waratahs. They had the least bad points difference of any of the Aussie sides and conceded the fewest points of all their domestic opponents, partly thanks to them also having the best tackle completion rate of any of them, at 85.8 per cent.
Their discipline was good and their set piece not too bad, and they managed to perform at roughly the same level whether home or away.
The area they struggled with was racking up points and really punching holes and gaining metres when they had the ball. They didn’t make too many errors, but they never really scared defences either in close or out wide.
But there is talent among the backline players and experience in key positions. If they can add some more effective ball carriers in the forwards, then the future will be looking good.
It’s worth remembering that the Force brought in a load of new players this season, and to see them perform in this way in their first campaign together should give hope to Force fans. They have shown that they can be difficult to beat. Next season they need to add in some more attacking threat – if they do, they will trouble the Brumbies and Reds again.
Meanwhile, over in Melbourne, the management must be a little bit worried about what’s happening. Not only have they had a shocking season – poor on the field in another season of no progress, and they’ve lost a coach and have had to be away from home far too often – but the powers that be must be looking at the structure of the competition again and wondering whether the Rebels really have a future at the top level of the domestic game.
The Waratahs have had an even worse season than the Rebels on the scoreboard, but they have the advantage over their Victorian cousins of being able to claim that they’re in a genuine rebuilding period and that they have a far more attractive market around them in New South Wales than the Rebels do in Victoria.
With two new Pacific sides joining the competition soon, the Rebels will know that they can’t afford another season at the bottom.
(Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)
A Super Rugby final without the Crusaders
The Crusaders are without doubt an incredible side – they would run most international sides close and pick up a number of wins if they went on a world tour.
But having a Super Rugby final without them is actually pretty exciting – even for Australian fans. It’s not that the machine from Christchurch plays boring rugby – they have some wonderfully creative players throughout their ranks – but sometimes it just gets a bit boring to see the favourites play well and win over and over and over.
With the Blues and the Highlanders coming together in the final we’ve got a much more exciting story. The Blues haven’t won a title for 18 years and the Highlanders have so often been cast as the plucky underdogs who everyone likes but no-one bets on to get the win.
The Highlanders are more of a surprise presence in the final, with the Blues finally living up to expectations. But when you look at the stats, it really shouldn’t be that much of a surprise.
They’ve scored 30 tries in the trans-Tasman competition and averaged almost one more try per game than the Blues backed by having two of the top four try scorers in the whole tournament.
They have a higher tackle completion rate, they’ve won the most lineouts in the competition and they have the best discipline out of any of the ten sides.
So the Blues might go into the final as favourites, but the combination of pressure and an in-form Highlanders side could well be their undoing at the final hurdle.
And the brain fade of the round goes to Lachie Swinton
Is Dave Rennie the only one who thinks that Swinton’s hit on Lachie Boshier didn’t deserve a red card? The Wallabies coach tried to justify the Waratahs backrower’s behaviour by saying, “He certainly didn’t have a big run-up in and he’s just trying to get in”.
Come on, Dave. It was a terrible hit. The guy had already hit the ruck and then reloaded and hit Boshier clear in the side of the head.
Now, of course we all know that one of Swinton’s plus points is the aggressive style he brings to the game, but his hit against the Chiefs wasn’t the aggression the Tahs or Wallabies need. It was a dog hit late in a game when the NSW side had already got the penalty and that the Tahs had already lost by miles. There was nothing to be gained other than hurting one of the opposition, and he must have known that there was a chance that he would make the final five minutes of the worst season in the club’s history that little bit harder for his teammates.
Opposition sides won’t have looked at that and thought, “Wow, I hope we don’t have to run out against him!”.
They’ll have seen it, smiled and started thinking about how quickly they can wind him up and get him off the pitch. Fortunately Rennie has other good options in the back row, but it’s such a shame to see the Tahs’ season end on such a sour note.
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/14/five-talking-points-from-super-rugby-trans-tasman-round-5/
https://therugbystore.com.au/five-talking-points-from-super-rugby-trans-tasman-round-5/
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Chiefs consign Waratahs to winless season
The NSW Waratahs have endured a winless Super Rugby season for the first time after falling 35-7 to the Chiefs in Sydney.
Winger Sean Wainui bagged four tries as the Chiefs consigned the Waratahs to an unprecedented winless campaign with a record-extending 13th straight defeat on Saturday night.
A dislocated shoulder to classy centre Izaia Perese only compounded the Tahs’ woes and provided a selection headache for Wallabies coach Dave Rennie in the process.
Far and away the Waratahs’ best performer this year, Perese would almost certainly have been named in Rennie’s squad on Sunday for the looming three-Test series with France.
But the powerhouse midfielder came off a sorry second-best after a late first-half tackle on Chiefs opposite number Alex Nankivell.
“It (the tackle) didn’t have to be made,” former Wallabies coach Michael Cheika said during commentary on Stan.
“We saw it previously in some of the clips – Izzy Perese going in making tackles he doesn’t need to.
“And if you see it, he’s looking for the big contact – no grip, no arm around – so it’s really unfortunate because’s been very talismanic.
“He’s made some great breaks tonight even for the Tahs. Very disappointing.”
While tossing up the likes of Hunter Paisami or moving Matt Toomua into the centres, Australia’s two-time World Cup-winner Tim Horan urged Rennie to blood 22-year-old Brumbies Len Ikitau instead.
“I actually think you need to start looking to the future,” Horan said.
“You know what Matt Toomua can do. I think you put the young kids in and give them a crack early on.”
As they have been in many other games this year, the Waratahs were gritty against a Chiefs outfit also out of finals contention.
The youthful Tahs showed a glimpse of their promise when fullback Mark Nawaqanitawase soared high to reel in a well-placed cross-field bomb from flyhalf Will Harrison just before halftime.
Their lone try reduced the deficit to 14-7.
But two more tries after the break to Wainui, followed by the Chiefs’ fifth try through replacement Tom Florence, sealed the Waratahs’ fate.
Back-rower Lachie Swinton faces a possible suspension and omission from the French series after being red-carded late on for a careless tackle on Chiefs flanker Lachlan Boshier.
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/13/chiefs-consign-waratahs-to-winless-season/
https://therugbystore.com.au/chiefs-consign-waratahs-to-winless-season/
Premiership: Exeter Chiefs 20-19 Sale Sharks - 14-man Chiefs fight back to seal home semi-final
Fourteen-man Exeter produce a superb comeback to beat Sale and secure a home semi-final against the Sharks next Saturday.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57439127
Leinster 38-7 Dragons: Fans return as Leinster end season with comfortable win
Leinster bring down the curtain on their season with an easy win over Dragons in front of 1,200 returning fans at the RDS.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57415681
Monday, June 14, 2021
Brumbies fall to Smith-led Highlanders
The Brumbies have failed to take a second Kiwi scalp, disappointingly falling to the Highlanders in their Friday night Super Rugby Trans-Tasman clash in Canberra.
The Australian heavyweights were hopeful of backing up last week’s win over the high-flying Hurricanes, but were outplayed 33-12.
The bonus point win sent the men from Dunedin to the top of the ladder, with the two leading teams at the end of the round playing off in the final next Saturday.
All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith orchestrated the victory with a try in each half while he also set up another for winger Sio Tomkinson and was delighted to finish the regular season without a loss.
“I’m over the moon, a little bit shocked,” Smith told Stan Sport.
“In that last six minutes we did everything to give the game away and I’m really proud of the boys to hang in there.
“We’ve given it our best shot to make the final – we’ve won five in a row and I’m absolutely pumped.”
(Photo by Dianne Manson/Getty Images)
The Brumbies were right in the contest at halftime, trailing 12-14, but didn’t rise to the challenge in the second stanza at GIO Stadium.
Smith darted across the line from the back of the scrum to inflict the first wound in the 46th minute.
While the Brumbies pride themselves on their set-piece they were outsmarted at a five metre line-out when the Highlanders found Billy Harmon on the short side.
And then Smith, New Zealand’s most capped halfback, threaded a pass to Tomkinson to score their fifth try of the night and crucially put the Highlanders into bonus-point territory.
The Brumbies did their best to spoil their opponents’ finals hopes with a late try but couldn’t find their way to the line.
Earlier Brumbies hooker Lachlan Lonergan boosted his Wallabies selection chances with a try from a rolling maul.
Centres Irae Simone and Len Ikitau also combined for a first-half try to press their claims for a call-up for the Test squad to face France next month.
“It was a tough way to end the year,” Brumbies skipper Allan Alaalatoa told Stan Sport.
“In the first half we thought we had the momentum but the Highlanders coming out and scoring two quick tries in the second half really hurt us.
“It’s been a huge learning for us – we’ve come away with one win in the competition so in terms of the review we’ve got to understand ways we can get better for next year.”
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/12/brumbies-fall-to-smith-led-highlanders/
https://therugbystore.com.au/brumbies-fall-to-smith-led-highlanders/
Sunday, June 13, 2021
England boss Eddie Jones' 'eyes pretty open' to identifying new talent in July Tests
Eddie Jones compared his latest squad selection to playing a game of roulette as he looks to unearth some new stars for the future.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57432221
Breaking down the New Zealand sides’ dominance in Super Rugby Trans-Tasman
While the tournament is not over yet, with four rounds of Super Rugby Trans-Tasman elapsed, we can firmly say that the New Zealand teams have far outperformed their Australian counterparts in various aspects of the game.
Let’s go directly to the relationship that we can establish between the number of tries and the points in dispute. In Round 1, Rebels-Blues gave an exaggerated measure for the projection of the strengths of the game.
The match ended 50-3 in favour of the Blues and yielded a difference of 47 points: so far, the largest margin of the Trans-Tasman. In that same order, it is followed by the 36-point margin in favour of the Highlanders in their clash against the Waratahs.
With an average of 35 points, the differences favour the New Zealand sides. On average, the differences of the Australians, who counted on the victories of the Reds and Brumbies, are presented at -5 points – it’s a difficult image to tolerate, right?
New Zealand teams have boosted their performance since the beginning of Trans-Tasman.
If we take the last Super Rugby Aotearoa as a parameter and focus on the result of the fixed formations, we see that there would not be too many differences in terms of effectiveness, since lineouts and scrums remained more or less stable.
But when working on the breakdown, we noticed an activity of clear improvement with an improvement of 2 per cent between both tournaments.
This situation of control and stabilisation of the game from the contact has shown its most evident side in the relationship of effectiveness between the occasions that the opponent’s line of 22 is exceeded and the number of tries converted on such occasions.
The average is 55.3 per cent effectiveness for the Kiwis, versus 39.7 per cent for the Aussies. The graph below shows the distribution of this relationship among the New Zealand teams.
Having consolidated the contact situations in Trans-Tasman, the progress of the New Zealand teams in the attack phases that could carry over to the next Test matches of the All Blacks (versus Italy and combined Fiji) should be focused around the instances of lineout and scrum as platforms.
But let’s go back one more time to contact situations. In some comments made on The Roar, I pointed out the categorical control of the game from the breakdown by the New Zealand teams, losing the ball every 30 rucks executed versus 16 by the Australians.
Is it likely that the different physical preparation of the sides has this shocking consequence, or is it simply the abilities and skills that each player is gifted with?
In this breakdown, the Blues are clear leaders, leading the way with 37 successful rucks before handing over control of the ball to the opponent and strengthening the principle of continuity in the game, a fact that contrasts with the 15 control rucks that the Rebels provide.
With just one game remaining and aiming to position themselves for a vibrant finale, the Blues, Highlanders and Crusaders are candidates for the first Trans-Tasman title.
In the meantime, the Australian sides must work to close the gap between them and the New Zealanders in the best possible way.
No one promised them a rose garden…
Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/11/breaking-down-the-new-zealand-sides-dominance-in-super-rugby-trans-tasman/
Shane Williams: Former Wales wing backs British and Irish Lions success
Former Wales and British and Irish Lions wing Shane Williams believes Warren Gatland's 2021 tourists will defeat world champions South Africa.
Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57403310
https://therugbystore.com.au/shane-williams-former-wales-wing-backs-british-and-irish-lions-success/
Saturday, June 12, 2021
Super Rugby tipping panel Week 17: Race in three
The equations for the final round of Super Rugby trans-Tasman are pretty clear, and it’s equally clear we have a race in three between the Blues, Highlanders and Crusaders to reach next Saturday’s final.
For the Blues, it’s pretty simple: don’t choke, and they’re in. They’ve got more than 20 differential points on the Highlanders and more than 30 on the Crusaders. Seats don’t get any boxier than what the Blues currently occupy. Surely, they can’t bugger this up.
The same applies to the Highlanders to be fair, albeit without the same history of disappointment and falling short as the Blues.
It’s a bit different for the Crusaders, though. They can’t just win if the Blues and Highlanders win as well, they have to win big. They essentially have to hope one of the other two trip up, or hope that neither get a bonus point, at which point the Crusaders need to bring out the abacus. At the moment, they’d need to win by 12 points plus whatever the Highlanders happen to win by.
The Hurricanes need two upsets, basically. That’s their best bet, because winning – even by plenty – won’t be enough. And the Chiefs need at least three upsets, no bonus points above them, and then need to run in a cricket score on the Waratahs.
Easy.
Last week
Harry and Dan 5, everyone else 4.
Overall
Harry and Dan 52, The Crowd 48, Geoff 47, Digger 44, Brett 41.
Harry
Reds, Brumbies, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs
This is regression week. Regression to the mean. The Trans-Tasman tourney has been extreme. But what if that is the mean? And any Aussie win is the anomaly?
Or is a two-win week (40 per cent Aussie) the true mean in this long and complicated rugby rivalry?
Why am I even thinking this deeply? I have forgotten how to be wrong.
As my blood brother Mike Tyson once said, perhaps meaning both of us: “My skills are impetuous.”
I declare the mean is 3-2 Kiwi.
So, Friday is Aussie Night! ‘Canes and ‘Landers come up short against the two best teams from the really, really big island.
(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
Saturday is Kiwi Day. Black Cap-level scoring all around.
Sure thing
Perfection.
Brett’s note: Or hubris?
Dan
Reds, Brumbies, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs
Much as I want to, it seems I cannot find a way to produce a different set of tips from Harry. “Both Australian teams is the way to go this week,” I thought to myself on Sunday. “No one in their right mind will tip two sides from this side of the Tasman.”
Then on Monday? Bam – two Australian sides from Harry. What is it they say about best-laid plans…?
Clearly, the two of us see the game too similarly. We know the ‘Canes showed vulnerabilities in their opening three matches against the three weakest Aussie sides, vulnerabilities that were and will be punished by the two strongest.
We know the Highlanders had a great fixture, drawing the weary Reds at home first up, and that the Brumbies in Canberra are a tougher test than any they’ve had in the past four weeks.
We know the Crusaders don’t lose games they need to win in order to make a final, and that, at Eden Park, the Force will catch a bad case of the Blues.
And we know the Waratahs haven’t won a game this year, have deployed a form of defence that has attracted all manner of sieve-like cliches and that neither of those facts will change against the Chiefs.
(Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
Sure thing
A selection smokey will demand selection in Dave Rennie’s Wallabies squad before it’s announced on Sunday with a dominant last-round performance.
Geoff
Reds, Brumbies, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs
It was almost as if Harry and Dan were wired into Jordie Barrett’s brain and kicking leg last week. Any pundit who has that kind of influence deserves full respect. Barrett will surely kick better this week, but I fancy that the Reds will have a real crack at them and take home the paua fritters.
In what looks like match of the round in Canberra on Friday night, I like the Brumbies to finish their season on a high. Meanwhile, at the home of rugby, as much as the Rebels are improving and have a reasonable record against the Crusaders, there’s only one sane tip to be made.
Expect to see another honourable performance from the Force in Auckland, but right from the start of this competition the Blues have been very focused on redeeming themselves for missing the SR Aotearoa final. They won’t miss this time.
The Chiefs are starting to look a bit ragged at the edges and aren’t the same side without D Mac. But this is the ‘Tahs, remember. 12 straight losses will become 13. Unlucky for some.
Sure thing
Anyone who has a crack at rugby’s new drinking game – knocking back a beer every time Justin Harrison says “inside shoulder” – will be hammered well before halftime.
Digger
Hurricanes, Highlanders, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs
Well, I tried picking Aussie sides and got burnt, then I didn’t pick any and got burnt again. I feel like I have been having fun with South Africans and fire pits.
Anyway, ‘Canes by plenty at home to finish the season off nicely, and no I will not explain how.
Aaron Smith has me tipping the Highlanders in Canberra, as I think he will prove the difference between the two sides, while the Crusaders I suspect will romp it in over the Sydney Rebels.
Blues will be made to work hard against the Force, but they will have too many guns in the end, while the Chiefs should have some fun going tit-for-tat against the Waratahs.
Sure thing
In a spot of controversy, Jordie Barrett will take his enforced All Black stand down for the Super rugby Trans-Tasman Final next week.
(Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Brett
Hurricanes, Brumbies, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs
A fortnight ago, I put forward a Crusaders-Chiefs prediction for the final and the Chiefs were duly doomed. I’m frankly surprised the Crusaders kept their record intact as well. In hindsight, I should’ve picked the Blues like everyone else.
I’ll pick them this week, though. I’ll say it again; surely they can’t bugger up making a first Super Rugby final in nearly 20 years. The Force were still a bid document when the Blues last played a final.
The Crusaders and Chiefs shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Rebels and Waratahs, respectively. The ‘Chefs’ might just feast on the buffet that is the ‘Tahs defensive line and get that cricket score they need.
I think the Brumbies hold on at home despite Aaron Smith coming back. A disappointing start to trans-Tasman is still stinging the Brumbies, and they’ll be determined to finish strongly. They say playing spoiler isn’t part of their plans, but they’ll have a chuckle when they do.
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And I reckon it’s the Hurricanes to kick the weekend off. Not by plenty, but by a few. The Reds have unearthed some gems in recent weeks, but they’re a long way different team without James O’Connor.
Sure thing
You know what, this will be the weekend I get the perfect round. I’ve picked a unique set, I’m well off the pace again and even the Blues won’t disappoint me. And it will all count for naught.
It might just be the surest Sure Thing in panel history.
| TT-5 | Harry | Brett | Dan | Digger | Geoff | The Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUR v RED | RED | HUR | RED | HUR | RED | ? |
| BRU v HIG | BRU | BRU | BRU | HIG | BRU | ? |
| REB v CRU | CRU | CRU | CRU | CRU | CRU | ? |
| BLU v FOR | BLU | BLU | BLU | BLU | BLU | ? |
| WAR v CHI | CHI | CHI | CHI | CHI | CHI | ? |
| Last week | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Overall | 52 | 41 | 52 | 44 | 47 | 48 |
Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.
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